The U.S. index approaches the 100 mark, and many Federal Reserve officials oppose an interest rate cut in December!

On November 3, in early Asian trading on Monday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 99.81. Last Friday, as many Federal Reserve officials publicly expressed their opposition to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December, the U.S. dollar index continued to strengthen and recorded its best monthly performance since July, finally closing up 0.25% at 99.70. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield finally closed at 4.079%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, closed at 3.582%. Spot gold fluctuated downwards and dived during the U.S. trading session. It once plunged more than 1% during the session, and then recovered some of the lost ground, returning to near the $4,000 mark. It finally closed down 0.53%, closing at $4,003.23 per ounce, but still recorded a third consecutive month of gains; spot silver finally closed down 0.47%, at $48.68 per ounce. Crude oil continues to be disrupted by news. Oil prices suddenly rose due to media reports that the United States may launch an air strike on Venezuela, but fell back after U.S. President Trump issued a denial statement on social media. WTI crude oil once returned to above US$61 during the session, and finally closed up 0.96% at US$60.66/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.88% at US$64.47/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 99.81. The U.S. Dollar Index has begun to rebound significantly, approaching the psychological 100.00 area, or a new two-month high, something that would have been unthinkable not long ago when the U.S. dollar was at a more than three-year low and all signs pointed to the downside. Technically, the nearest resistance level for the U.S. dollar index is located in the 100.00–100.15 range. Breakthrough 10The 0.15 level will push the USD Index towards the next resistance level of 101.85–102.00.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1525. The European Central Bank (ECB) announced on Thursday that it would keep its key interest rate unchanged after its October policy meeting, as widely expected. In the policy statement, the ECB reiterated its data-dependent approach to policymaking and said they were not "pre-committed" to a specific interest rate path. Technically, a successful test of the 1.1515–1.1530 support level would open the way to a test of the next support level of 1.1400–1.1415.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3133. Traders now see around a 68% chance of the Bank of England cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in December, as softer inflation and fiscal headwinds provide more room to ease policy. Technically, if GBP/USD remains below the support of 1.3145–1.3160, it will move towards the next support level, which is located in the 1.3015–1.3030 range.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In Asian trading on Monday, gold hovered around 3974.16. Precious metals extended their losses as constructive outcomes between China and the United States strengthened global risk appetite. Traders awaited the release of U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for October, which is scheduled to be released later on Monday.

Technical: Gold did find acceptance above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent corrective decline from all-time highs, although it lacked follow-through and remains below the key $4,050 level. This area could become a key pivot point, above which a new round of short covering could push gold prices through the $4,075 area (38.2% Fibonacci level) and towards the $4,100 mark. On the other hand, any further weakness is likely to find some support near the $3,900 area before the $3,950-$3,917 area and the $3,916 round. Some follow-through selling below the $3,886 area or below Tuesday's more than three-week low could leave gold vulnerable to accelerating its decline towards the $3,850-$3,845 area and then towards the $3,800 mark and $3,765-The next relevant support is near $3,760.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Monday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 61.09. Traders initially bid up prices on concerns that U.S. sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could disrupt global flows. However, these gains were quickly reversed as it emerged that these measures were more symbolic than structural.

Technical: Technically, the trend is still down, but the previous week's closing price reversal bottom is still in play, indicating a neutral to bearish trade. Bullish traders are looking to move to the stronger side of the 52-week moving average at $62.30. Exceeding this indicator and the long-term pivot at $63.74 would put the market well-positioned for further upside, with an initial price target of $65.95. Bearish traders view the inability to overcome the 52-week moving average as a sign of weakness and selling pressure. They are looking for a break below the 61.8% level at $59.44. If this fails to act as support, a closing reversal bottom at $55.96 will be on the radar.

Foreign exchange market transaction reminder on November 3, 2025

①09:45 China's October RatingDog manufacturing PMI

②15:30 Switzerland's October CPI monthly rate

③16:50 France's October manufacturing PMI final value

④16:55 Final German manufacturing PMI value in October

⑤17:00 Eurozone final manufacturing PMI value in October

⑥17:30 UK final manufacturing PMI value in October

⑦22:45 US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value in October

⑧23:00 US October ISM Manufacturing PMI

⑨23:00 US September Construction Expenditure Monthly Rate

⑩The next day at 01:00 Fed Daley gave a speech

The next day at 02:30 Bank of Canada Governor Macklem delivered a speech

At 04:00 the next day, the U.S. Treasury Department announced the fourth quarter financing estimate

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