US dollar index below 98, Trump says if NATO stops purchasing Russian oil

On September 15, in the early trading of Asian markets on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered at 97.67. Last Friday, the US dollar index generally fluctuated, and finally closed slightly higher by 0.12% at 97.62 as the market waited for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this Thursday. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.0700%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.5620%. As Israeli air strikes on Qatar and Russian drones entered Polish airspace, the two major geopolitical conflicts escalated again. Spot gold broke through the historical peak of inflation adjustment in 1980, and rose for the fourth consecutive week, eventually closing up 0.26% to $3,643.06/ounce; spot silver hit a 14-year high of $42.26 per ounce, and finally closed up 1.53% to $42.16/ounce. The Ukrainian drone attack caused the largest port in western Russia to suspend loading, and international oil prices rose. WTI crude oil rose and fell, finally closing up 0.58% to $62.59 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.83% to $66.87 per barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

Dollar Index: Moderate CPI and PPI inflation reports, and surge in initial unemployment claims, paved the way for the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its September meeting. Concerns about the labor market and prices have led to a new low in the U.S. consumer confidence index, with long-term inflation expectations rising for two consecutive months. Technically, the US dollar index trades below the 50-day moving average (98.121) and the 200-day moving average (102.186), with resistance at 97.859 and support at 97.253. Break below this level may open to 97.109and the gate of 96.377 (bottom of July 1).

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1723. Christodoulos Patsalides believes that the ECB does not need to lower interest rates further to achieve stable inflation at this time. Technically, the pair is above the 50-day moving average (1.16595), with direct resistance at 1.17801. The formation of higher lows since mid-August supports the bullish structure. Any continuous breakthrough of 1.17888 will pave the way toward 1.18299 and above.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3551. The UK economy stagnated in July, consistent with analyst expectations, with GDP of 0%. Meanwhile, monthly industrial and manufacturing production fell by 0.9% and 1.3% respectively in July. These two readings weakened market expectations. Technically, the pairs are both above the 200-day moving average (1.30875) and test the 50-day moving average (1.34645) upwards. Resistance is around the recent volatility high of 1.35950. Momentum favors bulls, but lack of economic growth may limit room for upside unless the dollar continues to be weak.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, gold hovered around 3633.64. Gold broke through $3,670 last week and entered the consolidation stage after hitting an all-time high. Next, the Fed's policy decision may determine whether gold has room for further growth, although it is already overbought from a technical perspective. Looking ahead to this week, the economic calendar can be called a "super week", and many major events will stir up the golden storm. On Monday, the New York manufacturing survey took the lead, revealing the pulsation of the regional economy; on Tuesday, the August retail sales report will test consumer resilience. On Wednesday, data on housing starts and building permits were released in August, following the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Canada; all eyes focused on Washington - the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement and Powell press conference will determine the extent of interest rate cuts and the dovish tone. On Thursday, the U.S. weekly unemployment benefits and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey took over after the UK bank policy decision; on Friday, the Japanese bank's decision concluded. This series of events not only tests the Fed's employment tilt, but may also amplify global liquidity expectations and promote further breakthroughs in gold.

Technical surface: The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart remains above 70, indicating that gold is still in the technical overbought range. The lower support level is first at $3600 (middle point of the rising channel), and then at the $3500-3480 area (static support, integer mark, 20-day moving average). The upper resistance level can be seen at the $3700 integer mark, followed by the $3795-3800 area (upper edge of the rising channel, integer mark ) .

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading around 62.54. Last Friday, oil prices suspended loadings due to Ukrainian drone attacks, but the gains were limited by concerns about U.S. demand; on Sunday, Trump urged Europe to impose sanctions on Russia, and Trump expressed his willingness to impose sanctions on Russia, and Europe must act in a ngjpn.cnmensurate manner with the United States.

Technical: From the daily chart level, crude oil has been continuously closed and stopped, forming a narrow range bottom, oil prices repeatedly crossed the moving average system, and the medium-term objective trend fluctuated. On Monday, oil prices fell below the lower edge of the range, and no continuous and powerful downward trend has been formed. It is expected that the medium-term trend of crude oil will remain weak and volatile consolidation pattern. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil ended, and oil prices turned around and fell downward and returned to below 62. The moving average system is short-term and objective trend direction is downward. The MACD indicator opens its mouth below the zero axis, and the short-term momentum is full of performance. The early trading trend is still in the downward rhythm of the main trend, and oil prices continue to hit lows. It is expected that the crude oil trend will continue to fall in the day, with limited space. < /p>

Forex market trading reminder on September 15, 2025

17:00 Eurozone July seasonally adjusted trade account (billion euros)

20:30 Canadian July wholesale sales monthly rate

20:30 US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index

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