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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Oil prices rose by more than 3%, and the gold price 3330 mark is waiting for the Federal Reserve's resolution and optimistic expectations for trade negotiations help." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday (July 30, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,327.60 per barrel, gold prices rose on Tuesday, investors were waiting for the results of trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, U.S. crude oil trading was around $69.22 per barrel, and oil prices rose more than 3% on Tuesday, as U.S. President Trump put more pressure on Russia on the Ukrainian war and optimistic that the trade war between the United States and its major trading partners is weakening.
The US Treasury Department released its quarterly refinancing report statement, and the Bank of Canada released its interest rate resolution and monetary policy report.
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday, with some businesses disappointing earnings, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq falling from record highs, while investors awaiting the Fed's policy statement.
Many Dow Jones Industrial Index ngjpn.cnpanies reported profits, including United Health Group, Boeing and Merck, all closed lower after reporting quarterly results.
United Health Group announced a disappointing earnings forecast, with a 7.5% decline in stock price, the largest drag on the Dow Jones Industrial Average; Boeing fell 4.4% despite reporting a shrinking loss in the second quarter.
Merck fell 1.7% after the ngjpn.cnpany announced quarterly results and stated that it would extend the suspension of exports of HPV vaccine Gardasil to China until at least the end of 2025 due to continued weak demand.
Tim Ghriske, Senior Portfolio Strategist at Ingalls&Snydery said: "Company profitability is mixed. Economic data is mixed, but it is not enough to have an impact on the Fed's policy. In the next two days, you will see Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon - these are big ngjpn.cnpanies, and their profitability and prospects will affect the market trend."
Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple will announce results this week, which may have a significant impact on the market trend given their market weight.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.46% to 44,632.99 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.30% to 6370.86 points. The Nasdaq index fell 0.38% to 21,098.29 points.
United Parcel announced its earnings and once again refused to release annual revenue and profit margin forecasts, with the stock price plummeting 10.6%, deepening concerns about the pressure on the ngjpn.cnpany by President Trump's ever-changing trade policies.
UPS caused the Dow Jones Transportation Average to drop 2.3%, the biggest single-day percentage drop since May 21.
Procter & Gamble fell 0.3%, the consumer goods maker forecasts lower-than-expected annual results and said it will raise prices for some products to offset the impact of tariffs.
Economic, the U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 97.2 in July, higher than expected. Vacancies in the U.S. were reduced in June, suggesting a further slowdown in labor market activity. The U.S. government will release its employment report on Friday.
The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in Wednesday's policy statement. Chairman Powell's statement will be closely watched to determine the timing of any possible rate cuts.
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, as investors awaited the results of trade negotiations and the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $3327.69 an ounce. Gold prices hit their lowest since July 9 on Monday after the U.S. and the EU reached a framework trade deal that curbed safe-haven demand for gold. U.S. gold futures closed up 0.4% to $3,324. "In view of the risk of uncertain negotiations, some investors still believe it may be appropriate to hold some safe-haven assets when the situation worsens again," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at CityIndex and FOREX.com. "In terms of U.S. interest rates, the Fed's two-day policy meeting will end on Wednesday, with the market generally expecting interest rates to remain unchanged. Investors will closely follow the Fed’s ngjpn.cnments to look for any signals about the timing and pace of possible rate cuts in the future.
Spot silver rose 0.1% to $38.19 per ounce; palladium rose 0.9% to $1,257.41; platinum climbed 0.7% to $1,399.70.
Oil prices rose more than 3% on Tuesday as U.S. President Trump puts greater pressure on Russia over the Ukrainian warBrent crude futures closed up 3.53% at $72.51 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures closed up 3.75% at $69.21. Both contracts hit their highest closing prices since June 20.
On Tuesday, Trump said that if Moscow does not make any progress in ending the Ukrainian war, he will begin imposing tariffs and other measures against Russia "10 days later."
Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said we have stepped up our efforts and we have set a strict 10-day deadline and there are signs that other countries will join us.
The oil price is also supported by the trade agreement between the United States and the EU, which, while imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, avoided a full-scale trade war between the two major allies, as the trade war would affect nearly one-third of global trade and bleak the outlook for fuel demand.
The dollar hit a one-month high against the euro due to optimism about the trade deal, hitting a one-month high against the euro on Tuesday after the U.S. reached a series of trade deals with its major trading partners, while the market is also waiting for interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
U.S. President Trump reached its largest trade deal to date with the EU on Sunday, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods and including the EU's $600 billion investment in the United States. The deal is higher than the $550 billion agreement signed with Japan last week that contained 15% reciprocal tariffs. Officials from China and the United States ended their two-day talks in Stockholm on Tuesday.
The euro fell 0.39% against the dollar to $1.154775, the lowest level since June 23. The euro fell 1.29% on the previous trading day, the biggest single-day drop since mid-May. The euro is expected to record its first monthly decline this year.
Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn GlobalForex in New York, said that the dollar began to rebound in July after a sharp decline in the first half of this year, and I think this is mainly short cover. The question is whether this is a trend change or a technical correction that should have occurred long ago. "
The dollar index, which measures the dollar exchange rate against a basket of currencies, including the Japanese yen and euro, rose 0.30% to 98.91, the highest level since June 23. The index will hit its first-month gain this year.
Chandler said: "The market was relieved that tariffs, at least the plans announced with Japan and the EU, and plans to extend the potential 90-day period with Asian powers, will help eliminate the tail risks of the downside. "
Several EU leaders criticized the trade deal with the United States. German Chancellor Mertz said Germany will be subject to agreed tariffsSuffered significant losses. The French Prime Minister on Monday called the deal a "dark day" in Europe.
The market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of Wednesday's two-day monetary policy meeting. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 8.6 basis points to 4.334%.
The Bank of Japan may also suspend interest rate hikes on Thursday after Japan reached a trade deal with the United States last week. The dollar fell 0.05% against the yen to 148.465. The US dollar strengthened 0.28% against the Swiss franc to 0.806 Swiss francs.
U.S. President Donald Trump said India could be imposed 20% to 25% tariffs, but stressed that the final tax rate is still not determined because the two countries are still in trade negotiations before the August 1 tariff deadline. "I think yes," Trump replied Tuesday when asked whether tariffs against India could reach that level. "India has always been a good friend, but India imposes essentially higher tariffs than almost every other country," Trump said on his way back to Washington on Air Force One after finishing his five-day visit to Scotland. "This approach is not feasible."
From July 28 to 29 local time, He Lifeng, the leader of China-US economic and trade, and Vice Premier of the State Council, held Sino-US economic and trade talks with US leaders, US Treasury Secretary Becent and Trade Representative Greer in Stockholm, Sweden. The two sides conducted candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges on economic and trade issues of ngjpn.cnmon concern to both sides, such as China-US economic and trade relations and macroeconomic policies, and reviewed and affirmed the consensus on the Sino-US economic and trade talks and the implementation of the London framework. According to the consensus on the talks, the two sides will continue to promote the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and the extension of China's countermeasures for 90 days as scheduled. He Lifeng said that the economic and trade teams of China and the United States should be guided by the important consensus reached by the heads of state on June 5, uphold the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, respect their respective concerns, further consolidate consensus, and deepen mutual trust. China's position on China-US economic and trade relations is consistent. The essence of China-US economic and trade relations is mutual benefit and win-win results. Both sides have broad ngjpn.cnmon interests and broad space for cooperation in the economic and trade field. If China and the United States work together, both benefits and fight will hurt. Stable, healthy and sustainable Sino-US economic and trade relations are not only conducive to achieving their respective developmentsTo develop goals is also conducive to promoting the development and stability of the world economy. In the next step, the two sides should continue to follow the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, give full play to the role of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, continuously enhance consensus, reduce misunderstandings, strengthen cooperation, further deepen dialogue and consultation, and continuously strive for more win-win results. The US side stated that stable U.S.-China economic and trade relations are of great significance to the two countries and even the global economy. It is willing to work with China to continue to negotiate and resolve differences in the economic and trade fields through the U.S.-China economic and trade consultation mechanism, promote more consultation results, and further stabilize U.S.-China economic and trade relations.
On July 29 local time, British Foreign Secretary Rammy announced that the UK will recognize the Palestinian State during the United Nations General Assembly in September when attending an international conference on implementing the "Two-State Program" held at the United Nations Headquarters. According to British media reports, more than 200 British MPs recently called on Prime Minister Stamer to immediately recognize the Palestinian State. In his statement on the situation in Gaza on the 25th, Stamer said that the UK hopes to promote the peace process and urgently demands a ceasefire. "Recognizing the Palestinian State is one of the steps"
On July 29, local time, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Intelligence issued a statement refuting the Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency's statement that the UK, the United States and Ukraine held secret talks and planned to replace Ukrainian President Zelensky's remarks. The statement said that such rumors were instructed by Nareshkin, Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Agency, aiming to undermine the social stability of Ukraine, alienate the unity of Ukrainian military and political leadership, and divert the international ngjpn.cnmunity's attention to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Federal Director Adrianna Coogler will absent from this week's policy meeting for personal reasons, which means that the number of voters in the interest rate resolution will be reduced to 11. Although Waller and Bowman may have voted against the rate cut, the ngjpn.cnmittee still has enough to keep interest rates unchanged. There is no substitute for the board seat, and the president's seat can be replaced.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the updated content of the World Economic Outlook Report on the 29th, slightly raising the world economic growth expectations this year and next two years. The IMF pointed out that due to factors such as the US trade policy, major economies around the world continue to face uncertainty, and the world economy is still relatively fragile. The report predicts that the world economy will grow by 3% and 3.1% in 2025 and 2026, up 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the forecast in April this year, respectively. The IMF stressed that the increase in expectations was due to factors such as importers stocking up in advance due to the threat of the U.S. government to impose tariffs. At present, global economic activities are distorted to a certain extent by expectations of substantial tariff imposition. In the next two years, economic policy uncertainty will continue to threaten the stability of the world economy.
U.S. ngjpn.cnmerce Secretary Howard Lutnik said in an interview that he had a conversation with EU officials this morning about the US-EU trade agreement. He said the digital service tax and the “attack on our tech ngjpn.cnpanies” will be the topics discussed in future negotiations. He added that steel and aluminum that were not included in the agreement will also become the part of the negotiations. “There is also a lot of bargaining,” he added. He said the pharmaceutical and automotive industries are key to reaching a trade deal with the EU; if drugs are not produced in the United States, the United States will impose "huge" tariffs, saying Trump will announce his drug policies in the next two weeks.
Hainan International Economic Development Bureau introduced on the 29th that the 2025 World Free Zone Organization Conference will be held in Haikou from October 10 to 12 this year, with the theme of "Free Zone: a gateway to prosperity, trade and sustainable innovation." The conference is co-organized by the World Free Zone Organization and Hainan International Economic Development Bureau. Recently, the two sides jointly held a preparatory meeting for the conference. According to reports, the 2025 World Free Zone Organization Conference will promote all parties to exchange insights, incubate creativity and establish cooperative partnerships in the use of cutting-edge technologies in free zones to build an innovative ecosystem, promote green and low-carbon development models, and deepen international cooperation and coordination mechanisms.
Minister Lan Fo'an published an article in the Study Times to continuously deepen the reform of the fiscal and tax system to better release the effectiveness of fiscal and political management. Research and formulate opinions on improving the modern budget system, and strengthen the systematic integration, coordination and efficiency of various budget management systems and measures. Improve the fiscal transfer payment system and enhance local independent financial resources. Research and promote the later transfer and subtraction of the consumption tax collection process of some items, optimize the value-added tax rebate policy, and study tax systems that are ngjpn.cnpatible with the new business format. Strengthen scientific financial management and continuously improve the level of systematization, refinement, standardization and rule of law. Carry out pilot reforms of central departments in zero-based budgets and support local governments in deepening zero-based budget reforms.
Minister of Finance Minister Lan Fo'an published an article in the Study Times, saying that he should adhere to the ngjpn.cnbination of benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption, strengthen pension and medical insurance, establish and implement a childcare subsidy system to enhance residents' consumption capacity and consumption willingness. Actively expand effective investment. Focus on key areas and weak links, increase investment efforts, improve investment efficiency, and better play the key role of investment in optimizing the supply structure. In the first half of the year, local government special bonds were issued 2.16 trillion yuan, further expanding the investment field and the scope of project capital, and strongly supporting the construction of major projects.
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