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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Many countries are sprinting for trade negotiations with the United States, while the United States and Europe are still arguing". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On July 29, spot gold trading was around $3,314/ounce, gold prices fell to the lowest level in the past three weeks on Monday, and the US-EU trade agreement boosted the US dollar and risk sentiment. At the same time, investors were waiting for new clues about interest rate policies at the Federal Reserve meeting this week; US crude oil trading was around $66.97/barrel, and US oil rose nearly 3% on Monday, after the United States and the EU reached a trade agreement, and US President Trump announced that it would shorten the deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war or face sanctions.
U.S. President Trump and EU Executive ngjpn.cnmittee President von der Leyen reached a framework trade agreement on Sunday that stipulated a 15% import tariff on EU goods, half the rate Trump threatened to impose from August 1.
Last week, the United States reached an agreement with Japan. "If you turn back to early April or Liberation Day, the primary theme has been the sell-off of U.S. assets because the new trading system brings uncertainty and now it is some sign of returning to normal."
Earlier this year, the dollar fell sharply, especially against the euro, due to concerns that a sharp increase in trade tariffs with most major partners would harm the U.S. economy and lead to investors considering withdrawing U.S. assets. U.S. stocks were mostly lower, but were still trading near all-time highs.
Usually, the gap between government bond yields is the main factor in currency trends, but the current exchange rate of the euro is significantly higher than the gap between the U.S. and the euro zone yields.
UBS WealthIf you think about our expectations at the beginning of the year, no one really thinks the euro will be so strong. We all believe that the dollar will remain strong especially after the Liberation Day and we continue to see the dollar weaken. "
Former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan Nakaso said the dollar's position as a major global currency will remain, but its "cracks" are emerging as investors turn to other currencies. The Bank of Japan must be wary of the risk of upward inflation, as rising food prices may lead to out-of-control inflation expectations. The Bank of Japan may resume rate hikes as confidence that the economy and inflation will meet expectations recover.
Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB Management ngjpn.cnmittee of Slovakia, refuted expectations of a rate cut in September, saying he does not expect any "important" data to guarantee action in the short term. Kazimir, one of the more hawkish voices in the Security Council, emphasized in a blog post that only obvious signs such as "labor market collapse" can prompt him to support another production cut.
Kazimir acknowledges that the U.S.-EU trade deal brings It has been a certain degree of stability, noting that it “helps to alleviate concerns and regain confidence” but warned that it is too early to judge its inflationary impact. He added that while inflation may be below target in the ngjpn.cning year, he believes that “there is no vague ghost of sustained low-key”, which reinforces his preference for waiting and evaluating.
A survey showed that in the 12 months to July, UK store prices recorded the biggest gain in more than a year, with food prices rising stronger, The survey became another inflation signal, highlighting the Bank of England’s interest rate dilemma. The British Retailers Association (BRC) said on Tuesday that the store price index rose 0.7% year-on-year in July, the biggest gain since April 2024, with food prices jumping 4.0%, the largest increase since February 2024. BRC CEO Helen Dickinson said: “House food bills will increase as food price inflation rises for the sixth straight month. "The BRC said the global market is tight, with prices of staple foods such as meat and tea rising sharply, but discounts on fashion and furniture have given consumers a little relief.
U.S. ngjpn.cnmerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an interview with Fox News earlier Tuesday that President Donald "expects Trump to impose tariffs on other countries by this weekend."
The Fed's voice-over tube" Nick Timiraos published an article saying that Fed officials expect they will need to continue to cut interest rates in the end, but they are not ready to do so on Wednesday. The differences between them are what evidence they need to see first and whether it is a mistake to wait for everything to become clear. Officials are now split into three camps on whether to resume rate cuts. The focus will be whether Powell will provide any nine at the press conferenceThe hint of a monthly rate cut, and whether his colleagues will start laying the foundation for the next meeting’s rate cut in the days and weeks ahead.
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