The dollar index rose sharply, Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again

On July 29, in the early trading of the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.64. On Monday, the US dollar index rose sharply, and continued to rise after breaking through the 98 mark during the session, finally closing up 1% to 98.633. Most of the U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 4.417%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yields closed at 3.93%. Due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the warming of risk sentiment, spot gold fell for four consecutive days. The US market plunged in the short term, approaching the $3,300 mark, and then rebounded, eventually closing down 0.68%, closing at $3,314.63/ounce; spot silver closed flat at $38.17/ounce. International crude oil rebounded as Trump said he was considering shortening the 50-day deadline of the Russian-Ukrainian peace agreement. WTI crude oil finally closed up 2.85% at $66.7 per barrel, a two-week high; Brent crude oil once stood above the $70 mark and finally closed up 2.91% at $69.57 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$98.64. Market focus is now turning to this week's Fed and Bank of Japan meetings. The two central banks generally expect to keep interest rates unchanged, but the market will carefully interpret the ngjpn.cnments after the meeting to find policy directions. If the Fed releases signals that interest rates are stable and overseas continues to maintain a dovish stance, the yield differences that have been suppressed by policy uncertainty may become more important again. HSBC's Paul McKel points out recent trade dealsIt may reduce policy risks and make traditional foreign exchange drivers such as relative interest rates more important. Technically, the US dollar index broke through resistance at 98.00–98.20 and tried to close above the 98.50 level. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next resistance level of 99.20–99.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1592. The European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged and took a meeting in a row within the decision-making ngjpn.cnmittee due to differences between doves and hawks. The EU's economic agenda will include retail sales data in Germany, growth data in Spain, Italy, Germany and the EU. In addition, traders are waiting for the release of HCOB manufacturing PMI, employment data and inflation data in Germany and the EU in Spain, Italy, Germany and the EU. Technically, the EUR/USD closed below the support level 1.1675–1.1690 and is moving towards the next support level 1.1575–1.1590.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3352. The GBP/USD fell again at the beginning of the new trading week, falling for the third consecutive trading day, falling back below the 1.3400 mark, hitting a ten-week low. The US dollar (USD) rebounded across the board after months of weakness, sending the pound (GBP) below the key uptrend line. There is no important data released in the UK's economic calendar at all. However, pound traders will have enough data on the other side of the Atlantic to be busy. The technically successful test of the 1.3370–1.3390 support level will push the GBP/USD to the next support level, that is, in the 1.3250–1.3270 range.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold hovered around 3309.01. Spot gold fell sharply on Monday, hitting its intraday low of $3301.29/ounce at the last three-week low, closing at $3314.44/ounce, a drop of about 0.66%, which is the fourth consecutive trading day. The fluctuating downward trend in gold prices is not only directly affected by the trade agreement reached by the United States and Europe, but also closely related to the strong rebound of the US dollar index, the recovery of global risk appetite, and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy. This trading day will also be released on the US July Consultative Conference Consumer Confidence Index and US June JOLTs Job Vacancy Data, which investors need to pay attention.

Technical: From a technical perspective, the long-term technical aspect of gold is still constructive, but market confidence has begun to shake. Gold once again hovered near the key 2025 bullish trend line, currently in the range of $3320-3330. If it decisively falls below this trend line, it may mark the beginning of a more volatile phase and significantly change the short-term gold forecast. The support level of $3300 has remained solid in the near future. Below this, the June low of $3247 will be the next key sign. On the upside, resistance levels are at $3350, $3385 and $3430, respectively USD. The bulls need to break through these obstacles to regain their highs earlier this year.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

Crude oil trading around 66.53 on Tuesday. Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Monday after the U.S. and the EU reached a trade agreement, and U.S. President Trump announced that it would shorten the deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war or face sanctions. This trading day will also be released on the US July Consultative Chamber of ngjpn.cnmerce consumer confidence index and U.S. June JOLTs job opening data, investors need to pay attention.

Technical: From the daily chart level, the medium-term trend fluctuates upward test around 78, the K-line closes to a large physical negative line, oil prices repeatedly cross the moving average system, and the medium-term objective trend direction fluctuates. But the subjective direction is alternating according to the main and secondary, and the direction goes downward. But from the perspective of kinetic energy, the MACD indicator is parallel to the fast and slow line near the zero axis, and the long and short forces are stalemate to each other. It is expected that the medium-term trend of crude oil will not change. Crude oil short-term (1H ) The trend is blocked at 66.70, and it changes rapidly from rising to falling. The moving average system diverges downward, and the short-term objective trend direction is downward. The MACD indicator shows signs of a golden cross below the zero axis, and the bear momentum still has the advantage. It is expected that the crude oil trend will continue to fall after a weak rebound in the day.

Foreign exchange market trading reminder on July 29, 2025

①To be determined, domestic refined oil will start a new One round of price adjustment window

②16:30 UK Central Bank Mortgage License in June

③21:00 US May FHFA House Price Index Monthly Rate

④21:00 US May S&P/CS 20 major cities without seasonal adjustment of housing price index annual rate

⑤22:00 US June JOLTs job vacancy

⑥22:00 US July The Consulting Chamber of ngjpn.cnmerce Consumer Confidence Index

⑦ The next day at 04:30 US to July 25 API crude oil inventories

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